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With spending and investment portfolios declining in the midst of a household debt contraction our chances of going into recession are rising. Household spending fell in June for the third straight month; never in the past five decades has this happened outside of a slump. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index plunged 16.8 percent in 11 days, Continue reading Spending and Investments Decline, Chance of Recession Rises Quantitative easing in the form of QEII has very likely lowered long-term interest rates, at least somewhat, promoting some investment and economic growth. But absent further fiscal stimulus, it’s unlikely to be a cure-all for a slow growing economy with anemic demand. And it is possible, though unlikely, that the Fed could find itself in Continue reading Quantitative Easing – Interest, Inflation Rate Tradeoff You may think emerging markets are no longer cheap. Even so, there are good reasons to consider emerging markets for a portion of your investments. One reason to invest in emerging markets is to gain exposure to currencies that have a good chance of rising. It’s important to have emerging-market currency exposure, especially because the Continue reading Emerging Markets Still a Compelling Investment Wanted: A strategy for economic growth, full employment, and deficit reduction—all without inflation. Experience shows how to get there. Credible actions that reduce the rapid growth of federal spending and debt will raise economic growth and lower the unemployment rate. Higher private investment, not more government purchases, is the surest way to increase prosperity. When private Continue reading The Path to Prosperity is Lower Government Spending Companies that are in the emerging markets, or U.S. domestic companies that export to emerging markets, are doing well, since emerging economies are doing well. But for companies whose primary customer is the U.S. consumer, business is slow. James Trebilcock, chief marketing officer for Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, says “cash at home is tight, and people are Continue reading Emerging Markets vs. Domestic Companies: At Home Cash is Tight, Being Used to Pay Down Debt, Not Spending U.S. economic data are “alarming,” signaling the recovery is losing momentum, Mohamed A. El-Erian, Pacific Investment Management Co.’s chief executive officer, wrote in an opinion piece in the Washington Post. Continue reading Unemployment High, Lower Debt Levels – Will Government Spending and Debt Help Economy? The forecast for inflation is a topic of considerable debate, partly because it has important investment implications, and partly because forecasts range from expectations of high inflation to Japan-style deflation. Few firms have as much interest ininflation as PIMCO because of the effect of inflation on the valuation of its portfolio. Mihir Worah, managing director and head Continue reading The Inflation Outlook and How It Should Influence Your Investments The availability of money to spend, global growth, especially in emerging markets, and greed, all help to explain why equities can be expected to be a great investment going forward. Zachary Karabell, president of River Twice Research and the author, most recently, of “Superfusion: How China and America Became One Economy”, helps us to understand, in Continue reading Wealth and Equities: Cash and Global Growth to Propel Stocks The concept of risk is inherent in life – it affects just about everything we do that makes up our “lifestyle”. Most certainly risk affects our investing. It also affects how we manage our career. Scott Shane, in his new book Born Entrepreneurs, Born Leaders: How Your Genes Affect Your Work Life s tells us more Continue reading Risk – Where it Comes From and How it Affects our Lifestyle |
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